• Adams Financial Concepts,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  Mile High View,  Return on Investment,  Super Cycle,  The Investment Industry

    Do You Believe It?

    Peter Lynch said, “If you cannot convince yourself ‘When I’m down 25 percent, I’m a buyer’ and banish forever the fatal thought ‘When I’m down 25 percent, I’m a seller’ then you’ll never make a decent profit in stocks”.[1] Lynch was one of the greatest investors of all time. He was, of course, talking about a single stock, not an entire portfolio. But in a concentrated portfolio, a stock down 25% can drag down the short-term performance. For the first quarter, I expect that the total of my client portfolios will be roughly flat. That is after a 77% gain in 2020 and 40% gain in 2019. None of the…

  • Adams Financial Concepts,  Current Events,  Mile High View,  Return on Investment,  Super Cycle,  The Investment Industry

    Should We Be Worried?

    What a week it was for the market! Up one day, down the next. Back up and then down and then down again! So what gives? Should we be worried? The latest data indicators painted a gloomy picture. If you assume the severe winter storms, including snow and freezing temperatures across much of the United States, are going to continue through the summer, and if you think no one is going to spend their stimulus checks, then things do look pretty bad. But the weather changes, bringing with it summer’s new perspective, and most recipients of stimulus checks and monthly child benefits are going to spend them. From that perspective,…

  • COVID-19,  Current Events,  Financial Planning,  Mile High View,  Super Cycle,  The Investment Industry

    Don’t Be Fooled!!

    The rapid recovery of the market in 2020 was exceptional. Don’t count on a repeat during the next big sell off. Instead, plan for a “Margin of Safety” in your portfolio. The bounce back of 2020 is the shortest on record. Most market recoveries take a lot longer. If counted in inflation adjusted terms, the drop that began in 1966 did not recover for 30 years. Stocks hits 1,000 on the DOW in 1966 and then bounced up and down for 16 years before going on to new highs. But inflation roared during that time and devalued the dollar by 70%. It took three times as many dollars on the…

  • Adams Financial Concepts,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  Super Cycle,  The Investment Industry

    WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THIS MARKET SELLOFF

    “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. I believe there are lessons to be learned from a previous time when the market, during a good economic time, plunged to the worst down day percentagewise in market history. It was the first time that the market plunge spread internationally to the world’s stock markets. There are lessons to be learned from Black Monday back on October 19, 1987. On that day, the market plunged down over 22%! Black Monday is remembered as the worst market drop in history, but it was October 20, 1987 that had the potential to collapse the entire financial system. There is an old saying: “for…

  • Current Events,  Mile High View,  Super Cycle

    What in the World is Happening to the Stock Market?

    Did you know that 60% of the revenues for companies in the S&P 500 are generated overseas, outside the United States?[1] It is important when looking forward to stock market performance in 2020 and beyond to understand what is happening to the world GDP and world economy. This is the first of two eLetters in which I will give you my views on the stock market in 2020. The best analysis I have seen was done in 2011 and is, in my opinion, still valid today. Standard Chartered Bank, a large bank based in London, released a study in which they state that the world is in a “worldwide economic…