• COVID-19,  Current Events,  Mile High View,  Super Cycle

    Why Will America Succeed?

    Why will America succeed? I call the reason “the baseball culture of America”. In baseball, the very best hitters fail 70% of the time. The worst players succeed 20% of the time. Even though the best players may have failed at their last at bat, when their turn to hit comes again, they step up to the plate and once again look for success. If we examine the personal histories of most entrepreneurs who have gone on to great success and wealth, most have failed repeatedly before striking success. It is so common, in fact, that in the last decade a new term has evolved: “fail forward”. Like the baseball…

  • Adams Financial Concepts,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  The Investment Industry

    Are Stocks Overvalued?

    Are stocks overvalued? Any number of “experts” are concluding that they are indeed overvalued. But are they? Really? When I was a rookie stockbroker back in 1987, I cold called a prospect who told me the market was overbot and overvalued. The DOW at that time had broken through 1,700, and this prospect had pulled his money out of the market a month earlier and was waiting for the DOW to drop off to 1,300. I never talked to him again. I don’t know if he is still waiting after 34 years for DOW 1,300. Those of us who stayed in the market have ridden that growth to 32,000. I…

  • Adams Financial Concepts,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  Mile High View

    Is the Bear Growling?

    There is a lot of talk today about the Buffett Indicator. The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of the market cap of all publicly traded stocks to GDP. Pessimists are saying the Buffett Indicator is predicting a bear market or even a crash. According to the indicator today, stocks are overvalued. There is no question that Warren Buffett has been a brilliant investor, but should we really use this indicator? He is a “bottoms-up” investor, as I am. But there are more problems with the Buffett Indicator. Almost half the revenues of all publicly traded companies come from overseas sales. The United States represents just 16% of worldwide GDP. So…

  • 401ks,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  Financial Planning,  Mile High View

    Clouds on the Horizon

    Right now I am beginning to feel like the guy who jumped off the 50 story building. Half way down someone yells, “How are you doing?” “So far, so good.” While the S&P 500 is within ten percent of the end of last year and my clients are even with the end of last year, there are dark clouds forming. Will they blow over, dump some rain, cause a downpour, or turn into a thunderstorm? Will COVID-19 infections continue up? Will the government stimulus run out? With spending way down, how does that affect the overall economic outlook? What is China doing? How close are we to a vaccine? Those…

  • Uncategorized

    What Happens Now?

    “It ain’t over till it’s over,” said Yogi Berra, the legendary New York Yankees catcher, and it’s hard to argue with his logic. He, of course, was talking about the 1973 pennant race, but I believe it applies to the economy and the stock markets today: “It ain’t over till it’s over”. There is good news and bad news. First the bad news: The unemployment rate came in at 14.7% with over 20.5 million jobs lost since the pandemic hit. There are over 33 million people who have filed for unemployment. Not since the Great Depression have we seen these types of unemployment numbers. The economy is staggering under the…