• Current Events,  Mile High View,  Super Cycle

    What in the World is Happening to the Stock Market?

    Did you know that 60% of the revenues for companies in the S&P 500 are generated overseas, outside the United States?[1] It is important when looking forward to stock market performance in 2020 and beyond to understand what is happening to the world GDP and world economy. This is the first of two eLetters in which I will give you my views on the stock market in 2020. The best analysis I have seen was done in 2011 and is, in my opinion, still valid today. Standard Chartered Bank, a large bank based in London, released a study in which they state that the world is in a “worldwide economic…

  • Current Events,  Mile High View

    Beware!! The Unicorns Are Coming!

    That’s right, the Unicorns are coming. As an article in The Economist[1]pointed out, we use a lot of animal names: bull, bear, dog, hawk, dove, lion, and – in the last few years – unicorn. Unicorns are private companies that are valued at $1 billion or more. Lyft recently came public valued at a $16 billion market cap. Uber has filed and more will follow: Airbnb, We Work, Pinterest, Slack, and a host of Chinese unicorns. I live in Seattle and remember when Microsoft came public. It was a small startup and already profitable, but nothing close to the size of a unicorn. Starbucks had just begun to expand outside…

  • Current Events,  Mile High View,  Return on Investment

    How Long Will This Secular Bull Last?

    John Templeton, one of the great investors, said of secular bull markets, “Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”   Secular bull markets continue for decades: 1941 to 1966 and 1978 to 2000, for example. I believe it is important to know the “mile high” view and not to get lost in the short term swings. There is no shortage of pundits who predict coming crashes. Andrew Roberts of the Royal Bank of Scotland stated, “Think the unthinkable – the market is going off a cliff”. That was in 2010. That is not unlike James Dale Davidson, who predicted there would…