• COVID-19,  Current Events

    What Just Happened?

    On Friday, the DOW fell 361 points and then yesterday the DOW gained 1,627 points. That is a sign that the market probably bottomed on March 23 and is beginning a climb back to new highs. It is a pattern that we have seen before. Let me give you the explanation of why I say this. The easiest illustration is Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the DOW plunged 508 points – 22.6% in one day. People remember Black Monday, but what might have been more important was April 20, 1987. When the markets fall like they did on Black Monday, or over several days in March 2020, almost all…

  • Adams Financial Concepts,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  Super Cycle,  The Investment Industry

    WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THIS MARKET SELLOFF

    “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. I believe there are lessons to be learned from a previous time when the market, during a good economic time, plunged to the worst down day percentagewise in market history. It was the first time that the market plunge spread internationally to the world’s stock markets. There are lessons to be learned from Black Monday back on October 19, 1987. On that day, the market plunged down over 22%! Black Monday is remembered as the worst market drop in history, but it was October 20, 1987 that had the potential to collapse the entire financial system. There is an old saying: “for…

  • Current Events,  Mile High View,  Trade War

    Predictions 2019: The Truth About China

    Recently, China has been causing no end of concern for the American investor. The Trade War that sprung up between the United States and China has caused fluctuations in the market as the talks have gone well or poorly, and, as of this writing, nothing has been resolved. Investors are wary of what could come next. I believe there is a historical model that we can use to understand China’s end goals and the means they may use to get there. At the same time, we have a window into China’s longer-term approach by looking at what China has done in steel production and the impact it has had on…

  • Current Events,  Mile High View,  Return on Investment

    How Long Will This Secular Bull Last?

    John Templeton, one of the great investors, said of secular bull markets, “Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”   Secular bull markets continue for decades: 1941 to 1966 and 1978 to 2000, for example. I believe it is important to know the “mile high” view and not to get lost in the short term swings. There is no shortage of pundits who predict coming crashes. Andrew Roberts of the Royal Bank of Scotland stated, “Think the unthinkable – the market is going off a cliff”. That was in 2010. That is not unlike James Dale Davidson, who predicted there would…

  • Current Events,  Mile High View

    The Impact of Fracking

    The stock market selloff Thanksgiving week 2018 was the worst Thanksgiving week since the 1930s, during Franklin D. Roosevelt’s administration. Why this sudden drop in a year of highs? And what impact will we see? In my opinion, the selloff stems from changes in the largest industry in the world. And few people recognize it. The Bush-era tax cuts, the largest ever passed, saved the average family $315 a year. The changes that are taking place now will save the average family $1,750 a year and will probably increase. Oil prices dropped from $76 a barrel to $51, and I expect oil will gradually drop even further. The energy industry…