“The factory of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog,” Warren Bennis famously opined. “The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment.”

Continuing the series that asks the question, “Will COVID be the Pearl Harbor Moment of our Lifetime?” And, perhaps more pointedly, where will the investment opportunities in the coming decades lie? Coming out of World War II, there were dramatic changes in technology, demographics, and lifestyles around the world. I would guess we will see much the same as we come out of the COVID-19 pandemic.

One major area of change will be in robotics. R2D2 and C3PO were mere science fiction in Star Wars, but our robotic reality may be closer than most people understand. Robots are entering almost every aspect of our lives. They are being built with AI (Artificial Intelligence) so the bots learn on their own. Robots are being built to swim on their own, walk on two legs, balance on two wheels, fly, and even backflip.

I can remember when I thought a robot or computer would never beat a world chess champion. After all, there are 121 million possible move combinations after just the first three moves in chess and over 288 billion possibilities in the first four moves. But modern computers learn, quickly eliminate the bad moves, and find the best alternatives; today, computers are the best chess players in the world.

Robots built with that same kind of AI technology are learning quickly to adapt to their work environment. Factory robots built with a multitude of sensors are not that expensive anymore. They never tire. They do not need lunch or bathroom breaks. They are never late. They don’t take vacations and there is no overtime pay. The Bennis quote above may not be far from reality in a few years.

These changes will not happen only in factories. Japan is expecting a shortage of 4 million elder caregivers in the next decade, and so several Japanese companies have been developing robots to fill the void. These machines may be built for individualized rehabilitation; they can assist in the nursing by picking up and carrying individuals, toilette patients, and they can meter out medicine to the exact amount at the exact time it is needed. Some robots are used to monitor health, some carry on a conversation, and some are simply cuddly. They can do the dishes for households as well as play the violin or the trumpet. They can do the housekeeping.

Robots are being built for space exploration. Think about the Mars Rover, Curiosity. From simple space probes to fully autonomous spacecraft, robots are powering the way. They can even assist in surgeries with organ repair or replacement. They can sense the pliability of the skin tissue.

Unmanned drones are just in the early stages of use. Beyond military use, they are already being deployed for humanitarian and disaster relief, in agriculture, in disease control, waste management, weather forecasting, mining, and construction just to name a few.

Robots are being used in exploration and deep sea exploration.

Of course, autonomous cars will be the way of the future.

With robots there will be fewer work injuries. There will be fewer traffic accidents. There will be safer surgeries. A lot of manual labor around the home will be done by robots. But clerical work will also be automated.

“Today everyone from 7-Eleven to Domino’s Pizza has a [robotics] program in the works. Tomorrow, whether it’s the latest John Grisham novel, cough syrup, or some late-night ice-cream drones are on the job.”1

The robotic revolution is just beginning.

 


1. Diamandis, P. H., & Kotler, S. (2020). The future is faster than you think: How converging technologies are transforming business, industries, and our lives. Simon & Schuster.