• Adams Financial Concepts,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  Return on Investment,  The Investment Industry

    5 Lessons from 2020 Hindsight

    Do you know of anyone who predicted the pandemic? Anyone who guessed we would enter 2020 and within months see a pandemic that would result in over 1.6 million deaths? Who could have predicted that the United States would be the country with the highest number of cases and the highest number of deaths? Who could have predicted the market would drop 34%, only to recover to an almost normal ~14% gain by the end of the year? Frankly, no one. Looking back on 2020, here are five important lessons that I and all investors should learn: 1. Black Swans happen. Every so often in a bevy of white swans,…

  • COVID-19,  Current Events,  Mile High View

    2020: DOW Down 2,000

    Hello 2018. Yes, 2018, not 2008. The drop has been sharper, but it feels the same. Computers panicked! This drop has been caused by panicked computers, not humans. Between 60 and 70 percent of all stock trades on normal days are made by computers. They can read the news in a fraction-of-a-second, and they have a list of rules on what is good news and what is bad. When the news falls into “bad” parameters, the computers sell. They don’t just sell once, but many times, and they make money on fractions-of-a-dollar, and then cover their sales a short time later – wash, rinse, repeat. The algorithms are not built…

  • Current Events,  Mile High View

    2019 Predictions

    One of my favorite quotes is from Yogi Berra: “Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.” Most years I believe that applies. I believe 2019 may be the exception. 2018 started strongly and continued until the end of August, and then not only did the S&P 500 wipe out all the gains but ended down 4.39%. In my opinion nothing characterized that what happened more than December 24 and December 26. On December 24, the DOW Jones 30 plunged 653 points and the next trading day on December 26, the DOW charged upward 1,024 points. What changed in the 36 hours from December 24 to December 26? Nothing. Computer algorithms…