• Adams Financial Concepts,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  Financial Planning,  Return on Investment

    SHOW ME THE MONEY!

    One of the most famous movie quotes comes from Jerry Maguire: “Show me the money”. In my industry, I hear so many stories about making money in stocks that make me want to shout at the teller “Show me the money!” I want the authors or story tellers to show me their strategy really works. Recently, I received a new white paper from Northern Trust that was titled “Getting Paid to Lower Your Risk”.[1] The authors were credentialed (PhD and CFAs); These are intelligent people. I wanted to see how Northern Trust was paying their clients to lower their risk. I custody my client accounts at Interactive Brokers, who started…

  • 401ks,  Adams Financial Concepts,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  Financial Planning,  Return on Investment,  The Investment Industry

    Are You Ready?

    Did you know the standard railroad gauge in the U.S. is 4 feet 8 ½ inches? Do you know why it is such an odd measure? Railroads in the United States were built by British expatriates who designed them the same way that rail lines were built in England. Engineers in Britain based the width of their railroads on the spacing of tramways which had preceded railroads. They built the trams with the same jigs and tools used for building wagons. The wagons were built to that width so they would fit the road ruts in medieval England which were based on road ruts in Imperial Rome, which were in…

  • 401ks,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  Financial Planning,  Mile High View

    Clouds on the Horizon

    Right now I am beginning to feel like the guy who jumped off the 50 story building. Half way down someone yells, “How are you doing?” “So far, so good.” While the S&P 500 is within ten percent of the end of last year and my clients are even with the end of last year, there are dark clouds forming. Will they blow over, dump some rain, cause a downpour, or turn into a thunderstorm? Will COVID-19 infections continue up? Will the government stimulus run out? With spending way down, how does that affect the overall economic outlook? What is China doing? How close are we to a vaccine? Those…

  • Uncategorized

    What Happens Now?

    “It ain’t over till it’s over,” said Yogi Berra, the legendary New York Yankees catcher, and it’s hard to argue with his logic. He, of course, was talking about the 1973 pennant race, but I believe it applies to the economy and the stock markets today: “It ain’t over till it’s over”. There is good news and bad news. First the bad news: The unemployment rate came in at 14.7% with over 20.5 million jobs lost since the pandemic hit. There are over 33 million people who have filed for unemployment. Not since the Great Depression have we seen these types of unemployment numbers. The economy is staggering under the…

  • Adams Financial Concepts,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  Financial Planning,  Return on Investment,  The Investment Industry

    The Economy: BC to AC

    It’s time to talk about BC to AC. That is, “Before Coronavirus” to “After Confinement”. The Economist calls it “the 90% economy”.[1] But first, let me take you back in time to give you an example of what may well be in store for some companies in the future. There was a junior clerk at Rochester Savings Bank in 1878 who decided to take a trip to Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. This young man wanted to record his trip by photographing it, however, the camera in 1878 was huge, required a tripod to hold perfectly steady, and the picture was recorded on a heave plate that had to…

  • Adams Financial Concepts,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  Mile High View

    Oil 2020

    What would you say if someone offered to pay you $37,000 to just take one single contract for 1,000 barrels of oil? All you had to do is find a place to store it. That actually happened a week ago. All you had to do was figure out where to put ten tanker trucks of oil until the market got better, and you would have been paid to take custody of the oil. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that demand for oil fell off a cliff. Airlines were cancelling flights and leaving their planes on the ground. People were being ordered to stay home and shelter, and…

  • Adams Financial Concepts,  COVID-19,  Current Events,  Return on Investment,  The Investment Industry

    When Is the Best Time to Sell?

    When is the time to sell and liquidate portfolios? Most advisors, according to a recent study by Howard Schneider of Practical Perspectives[1], says most advisors have seen little impact from the stay at home orders and they perceive the market will return to normal in six months. I have considerable concern. Yes, I am staying the course today and am optimistic that we will be back to normal by the end of this year. But I am not blindly staying the course. Usually, I try to accomplish at least five tasks every day. On March 12th, I spent the entire day on one task and that was to determine when…

  • COVID-19,  Current Events

    What Just Happened?

    On Friday, the DOW fell 361 points and then yesterday the DOW gained 1,627 points. That is a sign that the market probably bottomed on March 23 and is beginning a climb back to new highs. It is a pattern that we have seen before. Let me give you the explanation of why I say this. The easiest illustration is Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the DOW plunged 508 points – 22.6% in one day. People remember Black Monday, but what might have been more important was April 20, 1987. When the markets fall like they did on Black Monday, or over several days in March 2020, almost all…

  • COVID-19,  Current Events,  Mile High View

    2020: DOW Down 2,000

    Hello 2018. Yes, 2018, not 2008. The drop has been sharper, but it feels the same. Computers panicked! This drop has been caused by panicked computers, not humans. Between 60 and 70 percent of all stock trades on normal days are made by computers. They can read the news in a fraction-of-a-second, and they have a list of rules on what is good news and what is bad. When the news falls into “bad” parameters, the computers sell. They don’t just sell once, but many times, and they make money on fractions-of-a-dollar, and then cover their sales a short time later – wash, rinse, repeat. The algorithms are not built…